Traders got their big-rate-cut wish and markets still couldn’t rally
Wall Street got the big rate cut it wanted, but markets failed to sustain a rally. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday cut its key overnight lending rate by a half percentage point . It’s a surprising departure from the first cuts of previous easing cycles from the central bank, as well as a break from consensus expectations from as recently as last week before markets started pricing in a bigger cut. But stocks struggled to advance after the decision, after initially popping on the decision, as investors worried the bigger cut signaled greater economic weakness ahead, even with inflation well on its way to the central bank’s 2% target. .SPX 1D mountain S & P 500 Many market observers were disappointed by the move, saying the Fed was too aggressive — and possibly too backward-looking — with its initial cut. Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, noted that the half-point cut suggests slowing growth is increasingly concerning Fed policy makers. “The initial phase of the Federal Reserve’s normalization cycle is a little more aggressive than we anticipated as the central bank quickly shifted more of its attention away from inflation and toward the labor market,” said Sweet in a note. “Though the Fed won’t publicly acknowledge it, its dual mandate is turning into a singular one as the job market has softened.” “In our view, the rise in the unemployment rate largely reflects hiring that insufficiently absorbing strong gains in the labor supply, primarily driven by immigration,” Sweet wrote. “The Fed is likely worried that labor demand would weaken more, causing additional stress points in the labor market.” ‘Jumped the gun’ Nancy Tengler, CEO and chief investment officer of Laffer Tengler Investments, said the central bank had “jumped the gun” with its half-point decision. “Unemployment may indeed rise but we are not seeing layoffs — JOLTs still a very large number, well above pre-pandemic levels,” Tengler said. “My criticism of the Fed has been a myopic focus on backward-looking data. This feels like that. A single weak employment report and here we are.” Elsewhere, Scott Helfstein, head of investment strategy at exchange-traded fund firm Global X, expects that recent economic data does not support the Fed’s larger cut, though he expects the reduction will support risk assets. “There are not many indications that the economy is slowing in the most recent numbers,” he said. “A larger cut probably was not needed out of the gate, but that should support risk-on asset allocation.” — CNBC’s Jeff Cox and Michelle Fox contributed to this report.
